Dear Friends,

In this week’s newsletter, I’ve combined the introduction with something very important to us, GIVING BACK. We want to support the causes you care about!  

So here we are, halfway through 2017. It’s been a fabulous year so far, with lots of happy buyers and sellers, and we’re on track to reach our goals. Now we want to give back – to your favorite charities.  This is your chance to make a difference: is there a special cause you’re passionate about? Is there an organization that does amazing work in your community?

If so, drop us a line to tell us about it. We will donate to the charities that any of you nominate. Watch the video below and check out our newsletter to learn more!

Highest median home prices ever; a new peak in SF luxury home sales; the huge, new-construction pipeline; SF neighborhood home prices and trends; San Francisco & Bay Area home price maps

July 2017

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A Very Hot Spring

SF Median Sales Price Appreciation by Quarter since 2012

After hitting new monthly highs in May, San Francisco houses and condos hit new quarterly peaks in Q2 2017. However, median house price appreciation, $100,000 above its previous high, has been more dramatic over the past 2 years than median condo price appreciation, which has mostly plateaued due to the surge in new-project condos coming on market. As illustrated above, it is not unusual for median prices to peak for the year in Q2, and a significant part of this dynamic, besides the competitive heat of the market in springtime, is the large jump in high-end home sales seen at this time of year. More expensive home sales closed in Q2 than in any quarter in the past. Which leads to our next chart:

 

San Francisco Luxury Homes Sales by Month since 2014

Sales of luxury condos surged dramatically this spring to hit their highest number ever in June on a monthly basis, and in Q2 on a quarterly basis. Luxury house sales of $3m+ also barely exceeded the previous quarterly high in sales, but its component months were well below earlier monthly peaks. Note that condo figures do not include new luxury condo sales unreported to MLS. Our complete report: The San Francisco Luxury Home Market

 

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San Francisco New Construction Breakdown

Building Cranes Everywhere Approximately 64,000 housing units, 31 million sq.ft. of commercial space & 25 hotels with 4685 rooms are now in the SF new construction pipeline – with 5700 units, 10 million sq.ft. and 5 hotels currently under construction.

www.SFNewDev.com

In the above chart on new housing construction, the main issue for the SF residential sales market is new condo construction and its effect on the supply and demand dynamic. Over 5000 new condos have been built in the past 4 to 5 years, with another 2000 expected to hit the market in the next 2 or 3. This surge of supply has been a substantial factor in the overall plateauing of condo median sales prices in the city since 2015, and some declines in those neighborhoods where new construction has been concentrated. However, it is true that new construction has been shifting much more toward building rental housing than condos intended for sale, which should help relieve pressure on condo prices and continue to exert downward pressure on rents. The rental scenario is discussed further at the end of this report.

 

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Home Price MapsWe have just updated our median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Lamorinda & Diablo Valley, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage.

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SF Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends House & Condo Prices by Bedroom Count

San Francisco Median Sales Prices for 4-bedroom & 5-bedroom House Values

San Francisco Median Sales Prices for 3-bedroom House Values

San Francisco Median Sales Prices for 2-bedroom Condo & Co-op Values

Our full collection of home price tables: Median Sales Prices by Bedroom Count

 

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Appreciation Trends since 2005 for Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

Potrero Hill, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission SF Neighborhood House Values

Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley: Median Home Price Trends

Sunset District, Parkside, Golden Gate Heights SF House Values

South Beach Condo Values since 2005

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Sales by Price Segment within Neighborhoods

Median sales prices typically disguise a wide range of prices in the underlying individual home sales, which is what these charts illustrate.Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & Marina SF Neighborhoods

Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North beach, & Waterfront SF Neighborhoods

St Francis Wood, Forest hill & Extension, Monterey heights, Sherwood Forest, West Portal, Balboa Park, & Ingleside Terrace SF Neighborhoods

Lake Street, Richmond District, & Lone Mountain SF Neighborhoods

 

Dozens more neighborhood analyses can be found here: San Francisco Neighborhood Prices & Trends.

 

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Bay Area Rent Trends

This is from our mid-year report on the multi-unit residential market, which can be found in its entirety here: Bay Area Apartment Market Report

Median List Rents since 2011 in Selected Bay Area Counties & NYCSan Francisco still has the highest rents in the nation (the light blue columns in the chart above), exceeding even Manhattan (in second place, delineated by the dark blue line), but they have been dropping since recent peaks in late 2015/early 2016. There are two main factors: 1) per Ted Egan, the chief economist of the City of San Francisco, high-tech hiring has been slowing since 2016, and 2) over 8000 new rental units have been built in the past 5 years, with at least 10,000 more expected to hit the market in the next 5. Generally speaking, rents around the Bay Area have either declined, in what had been the hottest markets, or seen their appreciation rates significantly slow, over the past year or so. All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports

 

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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

© 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group