How does today’s market compare with 2008?

Are you uncertain where the real estate market is right now in San Francisco? Wondering if this is the 2008 crash all over again or if it’s a good time to sell/buy? The fall market will be over before you know it. In this video I share the four things to keep in mind if you are planning to move into the San Francisco real estate market. Below you’ll find the supporting data.

SUMMARY: BAY AREA RESIDENTIAL MARKET STATISTICS FOR SEPTEMBER 2022

The focus on this survey is on broad Bay Area market trends. Though submarkets will often diverge to various degrees, general trends in prices, and supply and demand typically move in parallel directions – especially over longer periods of time. Towards the end of the report is a link to a review of selected macroeconomic factors at plav in the market.

Monthly statistics often fluctuate according to seasonal trends. Year-over-year comparisons compare September 2022 to September 2021. All numbers approximate, based on data available in early October, and may change with late-reported activity. Market changes vary in degree by location and market segment.

• Year-over-year median house price appreciation rate: -1%, down from +18% in April 2022
• Percentage of sales closing for over list price: 42%, down from 81% in April 2022
• Average sales-price-to-original-list-price%: 99% (1% under LP), down from 111% in April 2022
• Average days on market: 35 days, up from 18 days in April 2022
• # on new listings coming on market: down 20% year over year, but up 7.5% from August
• # of active listings on market: up 27% year over year, but down 9% from July
• # of price reductions: up 124% year over ear, but down 12% from July
• # of home sales: down 27% year over year
• # of $3,000,000+ home sales: down 34% year over year

Virtually across the Bay Area, median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks. Part of this was due to seasonal trends: It’s not uncommon for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in QZ, then drop in the summer. But part of the price decline was clearly due to changing market conditions in supply and demand prompted by significant shifts and volatility in indicators like inflation, interest rates, stock markets and consumer confidence. In some markets spring to summer declines in the average size of houses sold played a role in median price drops.

The relatively short autumn selling season begins after Labor Day and runs through mid-November. The mid-winter holiday slowdown runs through mid-January. Though activity continues in every month of the year, it drops dramatically as Thanksgiving approaches, and many sellers see October as their best chance to sell until the market wakes up again in January or February.