The March 2026 median house price hit $2.15 million — officially surpassing the April 2022 peak and setting a new all-time high. If you’ve been watching this market or waiting on the sidelines, that number deserves your attention.
But the thing that has really caught my attention in the last few weeks: the spike in condo prices.
What I’m seeing on the ground is buyers who are priced out of single-family homes in the central neighborhoods pivoting to 3-bed+ condos instead of moving further out. Some are getting even more creative — finding ways to make two-unit buildings work for their families. The demand hasn’t gone away. It’s just shifting.
Houses
Condos
Overall Market
Data sourced from Compass. Scroll down for more.
We had been watching to see if prices would settle. Then we heard from our Anthropic buyers that the company was releasing approximately $5 billion in shares for employees to sell on the secondary market. As of today, we already have one of those buyers in contract and are actively working with several others.
We’re also hearing that smaller liquidity events are happening across the broader tech sector as companies compete hard to retain talent — particularly in AI. That money has to go somewhere. In SF, it tends to go into real estate.
I’ll be direct: it’s probably going to get harder before it gets easier.
If I had to guess, we could see another 20% increase on certain product types and price points this year, with luxury leading the way. What was a $3.5M home two years ago is now crossing $5M in many neighborhoods. That’s not a prediction meant to scare you — it’s the reality of what’s happening on the ground.
We’ve already ratified or closed 39 buyer deals in 2026 — roughly three per week — and we’re getting our buyers into contract in an average of 1.4 offers. In a market where most buyers are writing 8 to 10 offers before getting into contract, that number is not an accident. The moves we’re making in multiple-counter situations aren’t for the faint of heart, but they’re working. We can walk you through exactly how.
Active inventory is roughly half of what it should be for this time of year.
I know many of you are holding out for prices to climb even higher — and I do think they will continue to rise in 2026. But I also want to be real with you: with a war ongoing, oil prices rising, and inflation ticking up, none of this market behavior makes logical sense. The Bay Area has always marched to its own drum, but markets don’t go up forever.
If selling is even on your radar, the market right now is the strongest I’ve seen in my career.
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling — or just trying to make sense of what’s happening — I’d love to connect with you.
