Here’s something that’s going to absolutely blow your mind! Despite all those scary headlines about tariffs and market uncertainty (you know the ones), the San Francisco real estate market has had some of its strongest months this year – and I’m talking incredible performance!
One neighborhood is crushing it right now, selling homes in just 19 days while Pacific Heights takes almost three times longer (and trust me, there’s a fascinating reason for this that nobody’s talking about!).
Summer is officially here, and most people think the SF real estate market goes to sleep during these months. But here’s the thing – if you know what you’re doing, summer might actually be the BEST time for you to make your move (and I’m about to tell you exactly why!).
I’m breaking down the six biggest insights from the 2025 San Francisco real estate market, including why the luxury market had its strongest month in three years and which neighborhoods are secretly on sale right now. Get ready, because some of these trends are going to surprise you!
Summer in San Francisco real estate isn’t what most people think – and oh my goodness, this is where it gets exciting!
Yes, there are going to be fewer homes to choose from over the next few months (that’s just reality). Sales are slower in summer, and many buyers are out of town. When everybody starts to feel that the market is slow, it can put some downward pressure on prices.
But here’s the opportunity most people completely miss (and this is huge!).
The lack of inventory makes buyers slow down – sometimes they don’t buy at all because they’re worried the market is changing. If a good home presents itself, buying during the summer can actually be a fantastic time to make your move!
Pro tip: Make sure you’re working with a realtor who has access to off-market inventory (this is absolutely crucial!). Summer is one of those in-between times when sellers are often willing to sell because they don’t want to accumulate days on market during slower periods.
Right now, we have 14 listings signed for fall – and here’s the exciting part! Many of those homes are vacant, but the sellers don’t want to put them on the market yet. If a buyer came with the right price, they’d be willing to sell (talk about incredible opportunities!).
The relationship between economic uncertainty and San Francisco home sales has been absolutely surprising this year – like, I couldn’t believe what I was seeing!
When things were at their worst with tariff uncertainty and markets being crushed (remember those terrifying days?), I actually wasn’t seeing any effect on the San Francisco real estate market. If anything, both April and May marked two of our biggest months, and it was incredible!
This happened right when consumer confidence was at its worst since the pandemic (can you believe that timing?).
Here’s the weird part (and this is where it gets really interesting): just as the tariff situation started to wind down and stock markets heated back up to January levels, the SF real estate market actually felt like it was slowing down. Go figure!
Markets don’t shift across all products and neighborhoods at the same time – this is something I’ve learned over years of watching these patterns. We had a few listings that were harder to sell than they would have been weeks prior. Through some strategic marketing shifts, we sold all of them (thank goodness!).
For the next few months, it’s going to be really hard to tell if the market has actually changed. Summer is always a little wonky, and we won’t really know where the market stands until fall (patience is key here!).
The luxury real estate market in 2025 has been exceptionally strong – and I mean absolutely phenomenal!
We had the highest number of sales over $5 million that we’ve seen in any month in three years (let that sink in for a moment!). The stock market is sitting very close to the beginning highs of 2025, and interest rates are currently lower than when the year began.
Most buyers right now are locking into non-conforming loans in the low to mid-6% range (which is quite reasonable in today’s market).
Here’s an encouraging sign that’s got me really excited: Muni ridership is actually up over pre-pandemic highs! This means amazing things about people returning to work and coming into San Francisco. These trends signal positive things for the San Francisco real estate market – it’s honestly thrilling to see!
Understanding neighborhood performance is crucial for making smart real estate decisions (and trust me, I’ve seen too many people get this wrong!).
Looking at median sales prices going back to 2012, different areas show distinct patterns that’ll fascinate you. When interest rates went up in 2022, we saw decreases across various neighborhoods, but recovery has been uneven (and that’s where the opportunities hide!).
Pacific Heights and surrounding areas went down and stayed relatively steady – typical of that established luxury market. Noe Valley experienced a decline but has started climbing back up (those sunny microclimates are hard to resist!). The Richmond saw significant drops and is just starting to recover. St. Francis Wood followed a similar pattern of decline and gradual recovery.
Condo markets tell a completely different story (and this is where it gets really interesting!). Pacific Heights condos have remained relatively flat since 2021. Noe Valley condos experienced a delayed impact but haven’t fully recovered yet. Russian Hill condos dropped significantly but are almost back – what a comeback! Hayes Valley saw drops followed by another significant decline this year (definitely something to watch).
Speed of sale often indicates how competitively priced homes are in different areas – and these numbers are going to surprise you!
Here are the three hottest neighborhoods based on how quickly homes are selling (get ready for this!):
#3: Richmond/Lake/Jordan Park Area
Average time on market: 25 days
#2: Forest Hill/Miraloma/West Portal
Average time on market: 25 days
#1: Sunset/Parkside/Golden Gate Heights
Average time on market: 19 days (absolutely flying off the market!)
I’ve been saying for years that the Sunset is really undervalued – and finally, people are starting to listen! It dropped down quite a bit and hasn’t popped back up like other neighborhoods. But I’ve noticed in spring 2025, including one of our listings that set records (so exciting!), things are changing in a big way.
It’s probably going to be hot and cold over there – some homes going high, some not – but it’s definitely on its way back up, and I couldn’t be more thrilled about it!
Several neighborhoods are still offering incredible opportunities for buyers (and smart buyers are paying attention!).
The Inner Richmond remains one of the neighborhoods that’s still on sale – such amazing value! Bernal Heights has been a consistent value play (and those views, oh my goodness!). The Mission, despite some recent strong sales, still offers opportunities for savvy buyers.
Understanding street-by-street differences is absolutely crucial here. We recently sold a gorgeous home on Bird Street that went way over comps – and I mean way over! The home was beautiful, but it was also on a really good street (location, location, location!). Those special blocks and micro-locations make a huge difference in this market.
The percentage of homes selling over list price tells us so much about pricing strategies – and these numbers are fascinating!
In the Sunset and Parkside, 89% of homes sold over list price (sounds hot, right?). But remember – this often means homes are intentionally priced low to create competition (it’s all about strategy!).
Pacific Heights tells a completely different story. Only 35% of homes sell over list price, and they take an average of 52 days to sell versus 19 in the Sunset. This doesn’t mean Pacific Heights isn’t desirable – it means pricing is more transparent (and honestly, I appreciate that approach!).
Pacific Heights buyers don’t need to go in “guns blazing,” thinking everything will fly off the shelf. You need a realtor who can tell you when that’s going to happen and when it’s not (that’s where experience really matters!).
May 2025 revealed some really interesting market dynamics that had me scratching my head!
The number of homes going into contract in San Francisco rose 10% year-over-year (fantastic news!). However, we saw a 17% increase in price reductions compared to last year (now that’s where it gets interesting).
Of the 15 transactions we completed in May, four sold at the lower end of comps, and one sold below comps. The rest exceeded current comps – so mostly good news! Interestingly, all four that sold at the lower end were in late May, when the stock market had actually picked back up (markets are weird sometimes!).
Median prices in San Francisco still rose in May despite what we were seeing on the ground level – which just goes to show you can’t always trust the headlines!
Working with the right realtor makes all the difference in today’s market – and I absolutely cannot stress this enough!
Off-market opportunities aren’t all created equally (this is crucial to understand!). There’s a difference between an aspirational seller and somebody who’s genuinely motivated to sell between markets. Understanding this difference can mean the difference between overpaying and getting a great deal – it’s honestly that important!
Different neighborhoods require completely different strategies. Some areas work well with the “price low and let it go” approach, while higher price point neighborhoods often don’t respond to this strategy at all (you have to know your market!).
When markets shift, they don’t happen across all products and neighborhoods simultaneously – this is something people get wrong all the time! Pacific Heights residents often have more choices – if the market slows down, they might just hold and rent rather than sell at reduced prices (they have that luxury).
The San Francisco real estate market in 2025 has been absolutely full of surprises – and mostly pleasant ones!
While headlines focus on economic uncertainty (those doom and gloom stories never stop!), the reality on the ground has been different. Strong luxury sales, recovering neighborhoods, and strategic opportunities for informed buyers characterize this market – it’s honestly been exciting to watch!
Whether you’re looking in the rapidly moving Sunset district or the more measured Pacific Heights market, understanding these neighborhood-specific dynamics will help you make better decisions (and trust me, knowledge is power in this market!).
The key takeaway? Don’t let summer fool you into thinking it’s a bad time to buy or sell. With the right strategy and local expertise, summer 2025 could be your best opportunity to make a move in San Francisco real estate, and I’m absolutely convinced of that!
Need help finding your perfect San Francisco home? Reach out to us at hello@ruthkrishnangroup.com or text 415-735-5867. We’d love to help you navigate the San Francisco real estate market and find the perfect neighborhood for your lifestyle and budget.
