SF Real Estate Defies Market Dip

Why SF Real Estate Remains Strong While Markets Tumble

Things in the news have shifted quite a bit since my last update. Honestly, I haven’t yet seen the effects on the ground, but my team and I are monitoring this daily. San Francisco can sometimes feel immune to national news, but historically, we’ve never been completely insulated from lasting changes in the stock market.

In case you’re not following closely, here are some recent updates:

  • Consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2021.
  • The stock market has declined by about 5-6% over the past two weeks. Keep in mind, though, it had risen significantly over the last two years. If this downturn is short-lived, the impact should be minimal. Encouragingly, we saw a slight recovery on Friday, so let’s stay optimistic.

What’s causing the uncertainty?

  • Trade Policies: Recent tariff announcements have introduced uncertainty, affecting investor confidence and causing market fluctuations.
  • Economic Indicators: The February jobs report showed slower employment growth than expected, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%. This has sparked concerns about a potential economic slowdown.

My current take is that we might be in for a bumpier ride over the next 12 months than I’d initially hoped. It appears that Trump and his administration are swiftly moving to fulfill campaign promises to cut federal spending, which could continue impacting the economy. Depending on how this unfolds, we might see some political corrections around the midterm elections.

On the bright side, economic uncertainty is positively affecting interest rates. Interest rates have now dropped for the seventh consecutive week, aligning closely with December 2024 numbers.

What’s happening locally in SF?
It may be too soon to tell, but as of right now, our market remains very strong. In recent weeks, we’ve made offers on multiple homes—(and won)!—often competing against 10 to 20+ other offers. Most buyers we’re talking to remain highly motivated.

I’ll continue to keep you updated as we watch these trends unfold.

One more trend I haven’t mentioned yet is the massive increase in AI-driven buyers. Many of these buyers are focusing on the $2-4 million price range. They’re typically financing their purchases, and while cautious about not overextending, they’re entering the market in numbers we haven’t previously seen. This trend will undoubtedly have an impact.

If you have any questions about buying or selling, please reach out.

San Francisco Real Estate Market Data Through February 2025

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March 12, 2025
Market Updates
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