While we’re all watching the stock market’s dramatic swings with concern, it’s important to share what we’re seeing on the ground in San Francisco real estate.
Despite recent stock market fluctuations, San Francisco’s real estate market remains surprisingly strong. We’re seeing one of the hottest spring markets in a long time (though not quite COVID-level hot). With extremely limited inventory, buyers are moving quickly and aggressively – we’ve seen more pre-emptive offers than in recent memory. Though we recognize this could change as economic conditions evolve.
Case in point: our recent listing on 7th Avenue received five private showings within 24 hours and two offers by Saturday, with the seller accepting over $500,000 above asking before the open house. While these results aren’t guaranteed in today’s climate, they show quality properties are still attracting significant interest.
For buyers in this competitive market, speed is essential. You need to be ready to move quickly when you find something you love. Some strategies worth considering
If we do enter an inflationary period due to tariff situations, real estate can serve as an excellent hedge. Locked-in mortgage rates provide stability even as prices increase. Additionally, if interest rates drop further into the low 4% range, we might see more inventory as sellers currently “handcuffed” to their 3% mortgages become willing to make moves.
For potential sellers, the current strong market presents interesting options. We’re seeing success with “private exclusive” listings – properties shown off-market before committing to a full market launch. This creates urgency among buyers while giving sellers flexibility. One Pacific Heights property we toured yesterday was packed with interested buyers despite minimal preparation and marketing.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or concerns about your real estate plans. We’re here to help you navigate these evolving market conditions.
It’s hard to know what to say regarding the staggering volatility and uncertainty that has recently characterized political and economic conditions, much less predict how they will play out over either the short or long term. As of the week ending April 4th, both consumer confidence and financial markets have seen enormous declines. Whether this will continue, or reverse direction is unknown: Policies, actions and reactions have been changing very quickly in 2025.
Uncertainty, much less economic pessimism and plunging household wealth, is not typically a positive factor for housing markets, and increasing affluence from stock gains has played a large role in stimulating demand since late 2023. Unfortunately, interest rates have been climbing as well amid the shock of these developments, and tariffs and new immigration policies will almost certainly increase home construction costs. However, the current administration maintains that any short-term pain will be far outweighed by positive, long-term economic benefits.
Numbers pertaining to closed-sales data in this report mostly reflect market conditions that predate the most dramatic of recent financial developments. (Because of the typical 3 to 6 week time lapse between deals being made, i.e. listings going into contract, and sales closing escrow, sales data is a lagging indicator of market trends.) The quantifiable, hard-data effects of these new circumstances, should they continue, will come into better focus in coming weeks and months.
Generally speaking, through March 2025, Bay Area markets strengthened as the spring selling season gained steam: Sales volume and overbidding typically increased, and homes sold more quickly. The quantity of new and active listings rose across the Bay Area, sometimes very substantially, with growing impact on supply and demand dynamics – and price reductions increased as well.
Specifics pertaining to our local market are below.
