We are wrapping up 2024 and from my vantage point, it’s been a better end to the fall real estate market than expected.
A few different factors are moving in different directions. Interest rates have been rising, not falling, which honestly is a bit of a bummer. BUT the stock market has been at record highs – obviously, these two things are at odds but what seems to have won is the amount of cash in the market.
The most obvious place for that to show up is luxury, and we definitely see it.
I’ve felt that the luxury market this fall has been more substantial than I recall seeing it in quite a while. When I check out the stats, they confirm what I’ve been feeling and experiencing: the luxury market has been really strong this fall. We’ve seen many homes fly into contract more quickly with more offers than anticipated.
The data shows that sales of single-family homes over $5M and even condos over $2.5M were up over 40% this year!
We had two fantastic luxury sales this month: one designed by Feldman Architecture at 919 Church St, which we listed for $6.1M and it sold $500K over asking. And we were fortunate to represent a buyer that we’ve been working with for some time to purchase 2055 Vallejo St. which closed for $9.550M.
Another really interesting data point is the absorption rate. The absorption rate measures the demand vs. the supply. The higher the rate, the more heated and competitive the market is.
We often see a slightly higher absorption rate in October than in September because there are fewer homes coming on the market and buyers are realizing they are running out of time for this year. What’s interesting, though is that this year we had the highest absorption rate in October since the spring of 2022. Which for those of you who don’t know was the peak of the market.
I’ll share some predictions with you soon but I think next year has good things in store for San Francisco real estate.
Scroll down for more data and charts from our strategist.
If you are considering a move or have family and friends considering a move we’d love to help. Reach out to me anytime. I’d love to connect with you.
Year over year, median house and condo sales prices were up in October 2024, 2% and 5.5% respectively. Fueled by the large jump in new listings in September, sales activity – as measured by the number of listings that went into contract – hit its highest point since spring 2022. The absorption rate, which measures buyer demand vs. the supply of homes for sale, hit its highest percentage since spring 2022. Monthly sales volume was up 19% year-over-year, and year-to-date sales were up 11%. Days-on-market declined and overbidding increased. The number of price reductions in October 2024 climbed to its highest count of the year – the typical seasonal trend – but was well down year-over-year.
Interest rates continued to rise in October and early November, but, as of November 6th, all 3 major stock market indices were at record highs. These 2 financial indicators – the first one typically having negative implications for buyer demand, and the second one positive – may pull different market segments in different directions in coming months.
Luxury house and condo sales rebounded in October, and 2024 year-to-date sales of luxury houses ($5 million+) were up 40%, and luxury condo and co-op sales ($2.5 million+) were up 48%. Possibly reflecting 2024’s soaring stock markets, increases in luxury home sales have far outperformed the overall market this year.
Listing and sales activity, as well as virtually all the standard metrics of demand, typically cool dramatically in November and December, and the number of unsold listings taken off the market usually jumps, especially in higher price segments. Still, the next 2 months can be an excellent time for buyers to negotiate more aggressively to make some of the best deals of the year.
