A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators

A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators

If you’re a buyer or a seller in San Francisco, you’re probably really curious what’s going on with the current interest rate environment. You’ve probably heard that they’ve come down.

Well, they were over 8% less than 30 days ago and currently we have buyers that are in the low to mid sixes, depending on the day. That’s an amazing drop. So what happened?

“For the sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.” Freddie Mac (FHLMC)

Stock and bond markets – which greatly impact household wealth, consumer confidence, and interest rates – were generally characterized by deep pessimism in October, but with significant changes in economic indicators such as inflation, and a continued pause in benchmark rate increases by the Fed, financial markets abruptly shifted to enthusiastic optimism in November. That translated into a dramatic plunge in mortgage rates, which has caused mortgage applications to increase over recent weeks.

Since the homebuying process usually takes 30 to 60 days, from loan qualification and making an offer to a closed sale, sales might see a bounce in December, or – since the mid-winter holiday period typically sees the annual low point in new-listing (and thus sales) activity – more likely in early 2024 (subject to these positive trends continuing).

In January 2023, buyer demand saw a substantial rebound due to a similar drop in interest rates in late 2022.

For more data:

Status of the San Francisco Economy November 2023 (1)



December 15, 2023
Market Updates
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