I read a survey the other day that said over 40% of Americans think that real estate is going to bust in 2024. Here are my insights and observations from the trenches. Where are the best deals, the hottest and coolest areas? And what are we seeing in the luxury market. Let’s unpack the latest developments together.
Open house visitor numbers have surged, new listings coming on market have risen, the pipeline of coming listings is filling up faster than last year, and the number of homes going into contract is climbing rapidly as the market wakes up. With dramatic improvements since October in interest rates, stock markets and consumer confidence, both buyers and sellers are re-engaging to a much greater degree, and the velocity of the market is accelerating.
The inventory of house listings remains very low compared to pre-pandemic norms, and the demand vs. supply dynamic is very tight in that segment: One of the big questions in 2024 is how many homeowners, having held off listing their houses since mid-2022, move forward with selling. The supply of condo listings is considerably higher, and while condo and house sales numbers are similar, condo inventory is 130% higher. But condo market conditions also appear to be heating up in 2024, with market conditions varying significantly between neighborhoods.
January statistics based on closed sales – sales prices, sales volume, days-on-market, overbidding percentages – will mostly reflect listings that went into contract in late 2023, the slowest market of the year. Spring, typically the most active selling season, will probably result in substantial changes in these indicators. Depending on the weather, “spring” in the Bay Area can begin as early as February.
