SAN FRANCISCO REAL ESTATE MARKET BEGINS TO BOUNCE BACK – SLOWLY
MAY 2020 CRISIS UPDATE
Market activity begins to tick up after severe shelter-in-place plunge. Median home sales prices are up. Interest rates hit new low.
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Shelter-in-place caused steep drops in activity across the board in what is typically the busiest selling season of the year. However, though still far below normal levels, activity has been picking up since bottoming out in late March/early April, and will presumably continue to do so with the easing of both shelter-in-place and property-showing rules.
So far, year-over-year median home prices have increased, but a fair proportion of the sales behind April median sales prices still reflects offers accepted prior to shelter in place.
Interest rates hit a new historic low in the last week of April.
Week by Week Supply & Demand Trends
The only way to clearly perceive the recent changes in the market – sudden plunge and the beginning of recovery – is by looking at WEEKLY trends in buyer and seller activity. These are illustrated in this first chart below.
Year-over-Year Changes in Median Home Sales Prices
Generally speaking, the first months of 2020 have been characterized by year-over-year increases – often considerable – in median home sales prices across the Bay Area.
Longer-Term Trends in Median Home Prices
– 12-Month Rolling Illustration
Year-over-Year Monthly Activity Comparisons
The next series of charts reflects the dramatic changes in market dynamics by MONTH as compared to spring 2019.
Year-over-Year Changes in Luxury Home Markets
Mortgage Interest Rates
At the end of April mortgage interest rates hit a new historic low.
Unemployment
We are not going to review the economic news already extensively covered in the media, except for this stark illustration of the unparalleled rise in unemployment. How quickly this horrifying trend can be reversed will probably be the single largest factor behind an economic recovery.
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It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisc and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term. Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
